Nigeria’s domestic refining sector is set for a significant expansion next year as seven new modular refineries, with a combined capacity of 83,000 barrels per day (bpd), are projected to commence operations.
George Maher-Bonnett of Argus Media disclosed this in Lagos during a presentation titled ‘African Energy Outlook’ at the OTL Africa Downstream Conference. His paper highlighted the changing dynamics in West Africa’s petroleum market, driven by rising local refining output alongside falling fuel consumption.
As of September, four operational modular refineries in Nigeria maintained a collective capacity of 32,000 bpd. The addition of seven facilities will significantly expand the sub-sector’s footprint as the nation shifts toward domestic self-sufficiency.
Dangote Output Drives Domestic Self-Sufficiency
Maher-Bonnett highlighted the central role of the 700,000 bpd Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki in strengthening Nigeria’s fuel security.
”Dangote’s 700,000 bpd Lekki refinery is running hard, gasoline output is steady,” the presentation noted, adding that high operational rates have reduced the commercial appeal of importing European refined products into West Africa.
At the same time, national fuel demand has contracted over the past year. The report attributed the decline in domestic consumption primarily to higher flat prices, observing that market interventions remained minimal outside of recent price reductions by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Regional Trade Shifts Across West Africa
The expansion in Nigerian refining coincides with broader structural changes across the West African energy landscape.
Highlights from the presentation on regional supply routes include:
Ghana’s Capacity Growth: The 45,000 bpd Tema refinery in Ghana is ramping up production, boosting national self-sufficiency.
Weakened Import Economics: High freight costs and surging local production have weakened the profitability of traditional fuel shipments from Europe to West Africa and the United States.
