Nigeria is targeting an increase in digital connections from about 195 million subscriptions to 350 million over the next 10 to 15 years, as stakeholders in the telecommunications sector call for improved power supply, long-term financing and accelerated fibre deployment.
The call was made at the Nigeria Digital Connectivity Investment Forum 2026, organised by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), in partnership with Swedfund and Ookla, in Abuja on September 29 and 30.
The two-day forum, themed “Unlocking Infrastructure Investment through Data, Transparency and Partnerships,” brought together government officials, regulators, investors, development finance institutions, telecommunications operators, infrastructure providers and technology companies.
Participants said the rapid growth in demand for digital services had made increased investment in fibre infrastructure, data centres, electricity and other critical digital infrastructure imperative.
According to stakeholders, Nigeria consumed about 1.6 million terabytes of data in July 2026, representing an increase of nearly 47 per cent within 12 months.
They projected that the number of subscriptions could rise from approximately 195 million to 350 million over the next decade or 15 years, with emerging technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence expected to further drive demand for telecommunications networks, data centres and electricity.
The forum also noted that telecommunications and information services contributed 9.72 per cent to Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2026.
It further cited the mobile technology sector’s contribution of about $240 billion to Africa’s economy in 2025, underscoring the growing economic significance of digital connectivity.
Despite the expansion of network coverage, participants said meaningful connectivity remained constrained by the affordability of devices, limited digital skills and concerns around trust.
They noted that mobile broadband coverage had reached approximately 90 per cent of Nigerians, while smartphone ownership stood at about 27 per cent and broadband penetration at 57.4 per cent, below the national target of 70 per cent.
The stakeholders therefore stressed that expanding network coverage alone would not be sufficient to close Nigeria’s digital divide, noting that access to affordable smartphones and other devices must accompany infrastructure expansion.
The forum also highlighted the importance of reliable and independent connectivity data in reducing uncertainty for investors and guiding infrastructure deployment.
Participants said the collaboration between the NCC, Swedfund and Ookla provided granular data on the quality of connectivity experienced by Nigerians and could help identify infrastructure gaps at specific locations.
They recommended that proposed connectivity interventions should be screened at the national level, validated locally and independently assessed after implementation to determine their effectiveness.
Power supply and middle-mile connectivity were identified as two of the most significant obstacles to digital infrastructure investment, particularly outside major metropolitan areas.
According to the communiqué issued at the end of the forum, the high cost of inland connectivity was restricting data centre and internet service investments to a limited number of major urban centres.
The stakeholders consequently recommended that energy and connectivity investments be planned together, with clusters of telecommunications towers considered as anchor off-takers for distributed power generation.
They also called for financing structures that reflect the long-term nature of digital infrastructure assets, noting that such assets could have an operational lifespan of between 20 and 30 years.
According to the forum, the typical five-year bank financing tenor was inadequate for infrastructure projects with much longer asset lives and therefore needed to be complemented by longer-term capital.
The participants noted that infrastructure financing in Nigeria had expanded significantly, rising from less than N70 billion in 2004 to N19.4 trillion in 2025.
They, however, stressed that access to capital remained dependent on factors including good governance, management capacity and policy predictability.
State-level policies were also identified as important determinants of the speed and cost of digital infrastructure deployment.
The forum cited findings from the pilot Nigeria Digital Connectivity Index covering 12 states, which showed that Right of Way reforms had been associated with fibre growth of between 22 per cent and 95 per cent in states that implemented the reforms.
It further noted that the number of states charging zero Right of Way fees had increased from seven in December 2024 to 12.
Participants identified shared rural networks, satellite connectivity to unmodified handsets, micro-cabling, solar-powered rural sites and local production of devices and SIM cards as emerging approaches that could reduce deployment costs.
They cautioned, however, that such models would not eliminate the need to improve access to affordable devices for end users.
The forum called on the Federal Government to accelerate Project BRIDGE, the proposed 90,000-kilometre national fibre backbone, describing it as a strategic intervention to address Nigeria’s middle-mile connectivity gap.
The stakeholders also urged the government to improve the availability and reliability of electricity for digital infrastructure, maintain policy consistency and support financing mechanisms capable of reducing the cost of capital.
The NCC was urged to sustain reforms designed to improve the investment environment, including tariff realignment, designation of critical national information infrastructure and continued engagement with state governments on Right of Way issues.
The commission was also asked to publish the first national Nigeria Digital Connectivity Index report, strengthen open-access and wholesale regulation, and conclude work on the direct-to-device regulatory framework.
State governments, on their part, were urged to reduce and harmonise Right of Way and site permit charges, adopt the federal model requiring operators that lay fibre to reinstate affected roads and shorten permitting timelines.
Operators, infrastructure companies and technology firms were encouraged to expand shared infrastructure and neutral-host models to reduce the cost of extending rural and indoor coverage.
They were also urged to complement network investments with measures that would improve access to affordable devices, including locally manufactured smartphones and SIM cards.
Investors and development finance institutions were advised to align the financing of digital infrastructure with the long-term lifespan of the assets by providing longer-tenor naira capital.
They were further encouraged to tie infrastructure financing to independently verified network performance and deploy blended finance and credit-enhancement mechanisms for projects that were not yet commercially viable.
The forum outlined a series of priority actions with implementation timelines.
Within six months, stakeholders are expected to secure funding for community-owned rural networks powered by renewable energy in communities with no connectivity, through partnerships involving the Universal Service Provision Fund, state governments and the Rural Electrification Agency.
Within six to 18 months, stakeholders are expected to introduce open-access and wholesale regulations, publish a wholesale rate card and complete broadband mapping.
During the same period, regulatory backing is expected to be provided for the Universal Service Fund as the primary funding mechanism for projects in underserved areas, complemented by blended public and multilateral financing.
Other measures include developing a business case for indoor connectivity in commercial buildings and incorporating data centre requirements into the National Broadband Plan, with off-grid and renewable energy solutions supported through blended finance.
Within 18 to 24 months, stakeholders are expected to establish a financing framework for telecommunications power, standardise energy provision through regulation and bring telecommunications power infrastructure under critical national information infrastructure protection.
They are also expected to develop metro and access fibre through concession arrangements, with deployment mapped against existing infrastructure and integrated with Project BRIDGE.
The forum concluded that the major barriers to digital infrastructure investment — including financing costs and tenor, Right of Way and permitting challenges, unreliable and expensive power, and gaps in trusted infrastructure data — were interconnected and required coordinated interventions.
The NCC consequently pledged to continue engaging participants and other stakeholders to advance the agreed reforms, investment pathways and implementation timelines.
